Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age–Leave Gradient: On the Evolution of UK Support for the European Union
利用半个世纪的数据，研究发现年轻一代更亲欧，但随年龄增长会变得更怀疑欧洲；教育年限是重要因素，而时间效应（如经济波动）主导了年龄和队列效应，决定未来英国对欧盟的支持。
In the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum, young voters were more likely than their elders to support remaining in the European Union. Using half a century of data and new techniques, we find that recent cohorts tend to be more pro‐European than their predecessors, but that voters also become more sceptical towards Europe as they age. Much of the pro‐Europeanism of recent cohorts is associated with greater years of education. We also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with age or cohort effects. These time effects are plausibly associated with, inter alia , macroeconomic fluctuations, financial conditions and geopolitical circumstances, but they also could have other sources. They dominate the impact of the estimated age and cohort effects and will crucially determine future UK support for membership in the European Union.