Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds
研究了所得税预扣与退税背景下，低流动性与高边际消费倾向之间的内在联系，提出理性现金管理理论解释家庭为何不减少预扣以增加流动性，并用个人财务账户数据验证了退税金额与边际消费倾向的正相关关系。
Low liquidity and a high marginal propensity to consume are tightly linked. This paper analyzes this link in the context of income tax withholding and refunds. A theory of rational cash management with income uncertainty endogenizes the relationship between illiquidity and the marginal propensity to consume, and can explain the finding that households tend to spend tax refunds as if they valued liquidity, yet do not act to increase liquidity by reducing their withholding. The theory is supported by individual-level evidence based on financial account records, including a positive correlation between the size of tax refunds and the marginal propensity to consume out of those refunds.