Blame it on the rain: Rainfall variability, consumption smoothing, and subjective well‐being in rural Ethiopia
结合埃塞俄比亚农村个体面板数据与高分辨率气象数据，研究发现降雨变异性增加会降低客观消费和主观福祉，且消费下降无法完全解释福祉损失，表明消费平滑的收益被低估。
Abstract How does income uncertainty affect individual well‐being? Combining individual‐level panel data from rural Ethiopia with high‐resolution meteorological data, we estimate that mean‐preserving increases in rainfall variability are associated with reductions in objective consumption and subjective well‐being. Mediation analysis suggests that the estimated reduction in consumption does not fully explain the total effect on individual well‐being. Increased rainfall variability also has a large direct effect on individual well‐being. These findings suggest that the gains from further consumption smoothing are likely greater than estimates based solely on observed consumption fluctuations.