Estimating Hysteresis Effects
识别出能通过滞后效应永久影响产出的需求冲击，发现美国自1980年代以来这类冲击数量重要，会导致就业和投资永久下降，主要通过长期失业上升和劳动参与率下降传导。
In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular in samples starting in the 1980s. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.