The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare
基于美国调查数据，发现家庭对未来劳动力市场转变的预期存在显著乐观偏差，低技能者过度乐观而高技能者预期较准；通过异质性生命周期模型量化了该偏差对收入、消费和财富的负面影响，并指出技能梯度是财富不平等的重要驱动因素。
We analyze US survey data and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their expectations about future labor market transitions. We find that low-skilled individuals tend to be strongly overoptimistic, whereas high-skilled individuals have rather precise beliefs. Using a heterogeneous agents life cycle model, we show that the optimistic bias has a quantitatively sizable negative effect on income, consumption, and wealth, implying a substantial loss in individual welfare compared to the full information case. Moreover, the skill gradient in the bias leads to pronounced differences in asset accumulation across individuals, making it a quantitatively important driver of wealth inequality.