Maize price volatility and deforestation
研究了玉米价格波动如何通过影响土地转换决策来影响森林砍伐，发现价格波动越大，森林砍伐越少，对撒哈拉以南非洲26国的实证分析支持这一结论。
Abstract We develop a model of deforestation using a real option on agricultural land conversion and establish an important link between agricultural commodity price volatility and forest loss. Higher price volatility of staple commodities increases incentives to delay land conversion and is associated with lower levels of deforestation. Using satellite‐derived estimates of local deforestation and high‐frequency local maize prices across a panel of market catchments across 26 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, we find strong empirical evidence that maize price volatility is negatively associated with forest loss. Our findings are driven by catchments in biomes that are relatively well‐suited to maize production. Instrumenting for changes in price levels and price volatility with spatially explicit temperature and rainfall anomalies yields results consistent with our main approach. The findings highlight important tensions between agricultural price stabilization policies, conservation efforts, and environmental externalities.