Persistent shocks and incomplete regional adjustment: a model-averaging approach
针对区域经济冲击的两种对立范式（完全恢复与永久影响），采用模型平均方法允许中间情形，发现区域失业率在冲击后恢复不完全，即衰退有长期影响。
Two competing paradigms to modelling the impacts of regional economic shocks have arisen: ‘disequilibrium’ models, which predict that regional economies eventually fully recover, and ‘no-equilibrium’ models, which predict economic shocks have a permanent effect. To address this controversy, we adapt contemporary model-averaging methods to optimally combine both paradigms and thereby permit intermediate cases in which recoveries can be partial. Applying our method to a set of labour market models that span the disequilibrium and no-equilibrium paradigms, we find that regional recoveries are incomplete, implying that downturns have long-lasting effects on regional unemployment rates.