Valuing Domestic Transport Infrastructure: A View from the Route Choice of Exporters
提出一种利用海关数据中出口商路线选择来估算交通成本影响的新方法，结合空间均衡模型评估中国1999-2010年高速公路建设的效果，发现高速公路使运输成本降低20%，出口和国内贸易分别增长10%和14%，福利提升5.1%，投资净回报率达150%。
Abstract A key input to quantitative evaluations of transport infrastructure projects is their impact on transport costs. We propose a new method of estimating this impact relying on widely accessible customs data: by using the route choice of exporters. We combine our method with a spatial equilibrium model to study the effects of the massive expressway construction in China between 1999 and 2010. We find transport costs are 20% lower on expressways than on regular roads. The expressways construction increases aggregate exports by 10% and domestic trade by 14%. It generates 5.1% welfare gains, implying a 150% net return to investment.