Decomposing the Wedge between Projected and Realized Returns in Energy Efficiency Programs
利用伊利诺伊州家庭天气援助项目的数据和机器学习事件研究方法，分解了能源效率项目预期节能与实际节能之间的差距，发现工程模型偏差和施工质量异质性是主要原因，而反弹效应影响较小。
Abstract Evaluations of energy efficiency programs reveal that realized savings consistently fall short of projections. We decompose this “performance wedge” using data from the Illinois Home Weatherization Assistance Program (IHWAP) and a machine learning-based event study research design. We find that bias in engineering models can account for up to 41% of the wedge, primarily from overestimated savings in wall insulation. Heterogeneity in workmanship can also account for a large fraction (43%) of the wedge, while the rebound effect can explain only 6%. We find substantial heterogeneity in energy-related benefits from IHWAP projects, suggesting opportunities for better targeting of investments.