The Risk-Adjusted Carbon Price
推导了考虑气候和经济风险后的社会碳成本近似表达式,分析了风险厌恶、偏态分布等因素对最优碳价格的影响,为政策制定者评估碳定价提供理论依据。
The social cost of carbon is the expected present value of damages from emitting one ton of carbon today. We use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for this cost adjusted for climatic and economic risk. We allow for different aversion to risk and intertemporal fluctuations, skewness and dynamics in the risk distributions of climate sensitivity and the damage ratio, and correlated shocks. We identify prudence, insurance, and exposure effects, reproduce earlier analytical results, and offer analytical insights into numerical results on the effects of economic and damage ratio uncertainty and convex damages on the optimal carbon price.