Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home
研究经济面对突发疫情时的最优应对策略，发现社会规划者通过提前加大社交隔离和居家办公力度，可将累计死亡人数减少48%，而个人理性行为仅减少24%。
Abstract We study an economy’s response to an unexpected epidemic. The spread of the disease can be mitigated by reducing consumption and hours worked in the office. Working from home is subject to learning-by-doing. Private agents’ rational incentives are relatively weak and fatalistic. The planner recognizes infection and congestion externalities and implements front-loaded mitigation. Under our calibration, the planner reduces cumulative fatalities by 48$\%$ compared to 24$\%$ by private agents, although with a sharper drop in consumption. Our model can replicate key industry and/or occupational-level patterns and explain how large variations in outcomes across regions can stem from small initial differences.