Incorporating Uncertainty in the Economic Evaluation of Capital Investments for Water-Use Efficiency Improvements
研究了长期水利用效率投资的风险，通过结合成本效益分析和状态依赖分析方法，探讨了自然状态频率变化对投资回报和现金流的影响，并分析了决策者适应和补贴政策的作用。
Long-run investments in wateruse efficiency (WUE) are risky, particularly where water is required as a secure input. State-of-nature representations of supply outcomes provide an increased understanding of the vulnerability of capital and water users to adverse events. Using Californian data, we couple cost-benefit analysis to a state-contingent analysis approach to explore the riskiness of WUE investment payoffs and cash-flow outcomes when frequencies of states of nature change over the investment course. Critically, this allows us to represent decision-maker adaptation in the face of risk and uncertainty and the role of subsidy policy in those decisions.