Breaking the mold? Ministerial rotations, legislative production and political strategies in Lebanon
研究黎巴嫩2005-2020年间部长轮换对重要立法产出的影响，发现轮换使每届每部委的立法产出减少近四分之一，并基于35次专家访谈提出“记忆丧失”理论。
Abstract This article investigates the effect of ministerial rotations on legislative output. We leverage a novel dataset on “significant” legislation in Lebanon, defined as those texts that introduce changes in the legislative environment and are potentially relevant for legal appeals. We associate the legislative output of nine key ministries in all governments between 2005 and 2020 to 72 ministerial changes in this period. We find that rotation decreases the output of significant legislation by almost a fourth of average productivity—or more than 0.75 texts—per ministry and term, a result that is robust to various model specifications and fixed effects. Leveraging 35 expert interviews with senior government officials and (ex‐)ministers, we provide a theory in which rotations give rise to “memory losses” within ministries depending on the strategies of political parties to penetrate institutions with loyalists. Our findings have important implications for priorities to reform public administrations.