Long-Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone
评估了社区驱动发展这一援助策略在塞拉利昂实施11年后的长期效果，发现地方公共品和市场活动有持续改善，制度有微弱正向影响，并对比了专家预测与实际效果。
Abstract We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralised approach to economic development called community-driven development—a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid—by revisiting a randomised community-driven development program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that community-driven development may have slightly improved the communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about the effectiveness of community-driven development.