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能源公告前后的市场非效率

Market inefficiencies surrounding energy announcements

Journal of Futures Markets · 2021
被引 6
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

利用能源库存公告数据,发现原油期货和股票市场存在可被利用的非效率,并构建了预测库存意外和公告前收益的指标。

Abstract

Abstract We use sequential energy inventory announcements to shed new light on the informational efficiency of financial markets. Our findings provide clear evidence of inefficiency in crude oil futures and stock markets. This inefficiency can be exploited by sophisticated traders. We examine the effect of market liquidity on the efficient incorporation of information in this setting. We also construct a predictor that can predict inventory surprises and preannouncement returns in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Finally, we develop a combination forecast that can be used as a proxy for market expectations of oil inventory announcements.

金融市场能源经济市场效率原油期货信息经济学