Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches
研究了1997至2018年美联储官员演讲中关于金融稳定的信息，发现演讲中金融稳定话题强度越高或语气越负面，货币政策就越宽松，这一效应在金融危机前和地区联储主席的演讲中更明显。
This paper studies the informational content of speeches of Fed officials, focusing on financial stability , from 1997 to 2018. We construct indicators that measure the intensity and tone of this topic for both Governors and FRB presidents. When added to a standard forward-looking Taylor rule , a higher topic intensity or negative tone is associated with more monetary policy accommodation than implied by the state of the economy. Our results are mainly driven by the sample prior to the global financial crisis and the information in speeches of FRB presidents. We discuss several channels to account for these findings.