Inflation Expectations of Euro Area Consumers and Firms
研究欧元区消费者和企业通胀预期的影响因素，发现经济信心、实际通胀（尤其是食品和能源）、生产者价格通胀以及就业预期等对不同主体的预期有不同作用，并解释了疫情初期两者预期为何分化。
This Economic Letter examines what information is most relevant for the inflation expectations of consumers and firms in the euro area. We find that confidence in the economy is very important. However, the relationship between confidence and inflation expectations for consumers is negative, while it is positive for firms. Actual consumer price inflation, especially for food and energy, is also strongly associated with expectations of future inflation but to a varying degree. Producer price inflation is an important predictor of firms’ expectations. In addition, employment expectations are relevant for firms and past economic situation plays a large role for consumers. Our results shed some light as to why euro area consumers’ and firms’ inflation expectations diverged at the start of the COVID-19 crisis.