Effective Scenarios in Multistage Distributionally Robust Optimization with a Focus on Total Variation Distance
研究了多阶段分布鲁棒优化中如何定义和识别对最优值有影响的关键情景路径，提出了基于总变差距离的易检验条件，数值结果验证了其有效性。
We study multistage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) to hedge against ambiguity in quantifying the underlying uncertainty of a problem. Recognizing that not all the realizations and scenario paths might have an “effect” on the optimal value, we investigate the question of how to define and identify critical scenarios for nested multistage DRO problems. Our analysis extends the work of Rahimian, Bayraksan, and Homem-de-Mello [Math. Program., 173 (2019), pp. 393--430], which was in the context of a static/two-stage setting, to the multistage setting. To this end, we define the notions of effectiveness of scenario paths and the conditional effectiveness of realizations along a scenario path for a general class of multistage DRO problems. We then propose easy-to-check conditions to identify the effectiveness of scenario paths in the multistage setting when the distributional ambiguity is modeled via the total variation distance. Numerical results show that these notions provide useful insight on the underlying uncertainty of the problem.