News-Driven Uncertainty Fluctuations
研究了新闻如何影响经济主体的主观不确定性，发现与先验信念冲突的新闻增加不确定性，一致的则降低。基于美国产出和专业预测数据估计新闻冲击，表明新闻冲击的影响类似不确定性冲击，控制新闻会削弱不确定性冲击的估计效应。
We investigate the channels through which news influences the subjective beliefs of economic agents, with a particular focus on their subjective uncertainty. The main insight of the article is that news that is more at odds with agents’ prior beliefs generates an increase in uncertainty; news that is more consistent with their prior beliefs generates a decrease in uncertainty. We illustrate this insight theoretically and then estimate the model empirically using data on U.S. output and professional forecasts to provide novel measures of news shocks and uncertainty. We then estimate impulse responses from the identified shocks to show that news shocks can affect macroeconomic variables in ways that resemble the effects of uncertainty shocks. Our results suggest that controlling for news can potentially diminish the estimated effects of uncertainty shocks on real variables, particularly at longer horizons.