Real Effects of Tax Uncertainty: Evidence from Firm Capital Investments
利用Schedule UTP政策实施，研究发现税收不确定性增加导致企业推迟大型资本投资，尤其对拥有更多重大不确定税收头寸或会计信息质量较低的企业影响更强，且该效应集中在融资约束企业中。
This paper examines whether tax uncertainty can alter investment decisions, focusing primarily on the timing of large capital investments. Empirically, we exploit the staggered implementation of Schedule UTP, a discrete policy change expected to increase tax uncertainty, finding that, on average, firms responded by delaying large capital investments. This effect is stronger among firms at which the policy treatment is particularly germane, that is, for firms with more material UTBs or with low-to-moderate quality public accounting information. We also test the underlying mechanism, finding that managers buffer against higher tax uncertainty with cheaper sources of financing (cash) and that the investment effect is concentrated among financially constrained firms. The results show that Schedule UTP also reduces the sensitivity of investment to growth opportunities (investment-Q sensitivity) in line with a higher hurdle rate for firms facing higher tax uncertainty. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.