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符号与零约束识别SVAR中的推断算法

Algorithms for inference in SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions

Econometrics Journal · 2022
被引 11
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

开发了在符号和零约束下进行结构向量自回归贝叶斯推断的算法,通过将约束系统等价转化为低维空间中的符号约束,扩展了现有算法以处理零约束,并应用于美国货币政策效应估计。

Abstract

Summary I develop algorithms to facilitate Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions that are set-identified with sign and zero restrictions by showing that the system of restrictions is equivalent to a system of sign restrictions in a lower-dimensional space. Consequently, algorithms applicable under sign restrictions can be extended to allow for zero restrictions. Specifically, I extend algorithms proposed in Amir-Ahmadi and Drautzburg (2021) to check whether the identified set is nonempty and to sample from the identified set without rejection sampling. I compare the new algorithms to alternatives by applying them to variations of the model considered by Arias et al. (2019a), who estimate the effects of US monetary policy using sign and zero restrictions on the monetary policy reaction function. The new algorithms are particularly useful when a rich set of sign restrictions substantially truncates the identified set given the zero restrictions.

结构向量自回归符号约束零约束贝叶斯推断货币政策