Stimulating Consumption at Low Budget: Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Experiment Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
基于超百万匿名个体的详细交易记录，研究发现中国政府发放的数字优惠券能有效刺激消费，每1元补贴可带动3.4至5.8元额外支出，且效果持续多轮。
We use a novel panel with detailed transaction records of more than one million de-identified individuals to study the effect of a large-scale Chinese government-issued digital coupon program on consumer spending. Exploiting a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the digital coupon is highly effective in stimulating consumption. An effective government subsidy of RMB 1 can drive excess spending of RMB 3.4 to RMB 5.8, and the effect persists across multiple coupon issuance waves. In explaining the results, we find that a behavioral model with mental accounting and loss aversion can match the empirical evidence from the field. Our analysis, by illustrating the importance of embedding behavioral factors into the design and implementation of public policy, informs the current debate about cost-effective policy tools to recover the economy. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.