SPENDING A WINDFALL
研究了1500至1810年间美洲贵金属发现对国际贸易的影响，通过构建反事实情景，发现贵金属使欧亚贸易峰值增长高达20倍，其重要性不亚于新航路。
Abstract We study the effect of the discovery of precious metals in America from 1500 to 1810 on international trade. Around 1500, there was a simultaneous discovery of precious metals and new trading routes. We construct a counterfactual of new routes but no precious metals. The discovery of precious metals increased the stock of precious metals more than 10‐fold. We show that Euro‐Asian trade at its peak increased up to 20 times compared with the counterfactual. Our simulations match the observed price dynamics. We find that precious metals were at least as important as the new routes.