The Aftermath of Debt Surges
回顾了降低新兴市场和发展中经济体高债务负担的多种选项,包括正统和异端方法,并指出每种方法都有政治、经济和社会成本,对政策制定者和经济学家有参考价值。
Debt in emerging markets and developing economies is at its highest level in half a century. In about 9 in 10 emerging markets and developing economies, debt is higher now than it was in 2010, and in half of the emerging markets and developing economies, debt is more than 30 percentage points of GDP higher than in 2010. This article reviews a menu of options that in the past have helped lower debt burdens. It examines orthodox options (enhancing growth, fiscal consolidation, privatization, and wealth taxation) and heterodox options (inflation, financial repression, and debt default and restructuring). The mix of feasible options depends on country characteristics and the type of debt. However, none of these options comes without political, economic, and social costs. The challenges associated with debt reduction raise questions of global governance, including to what extent advanced economies can better support emerging market and developing economies in cushioning prospective shocks.