The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders
利用丹麦DNA数据库的大规模扩展，研究发现DNA登记使罪犯一年内再犯率降低高达42%，并提高再犯时被识别的概率，进而估计出检测概率每提高1%可使犯罪减少超过2%。
This paper studies the effects of adding criminal offenders to a DNA database. Using a large expansion of Denmark’s DNA database, we find that DNA registration reduces recidivism within the following year by up to 42 percent. It also increases the probability that offenders are identified if they recidivate, which we use to estimate the elasticity of crime with respect to the detection probability and find that a 1 percent higher detection probability reduces crime by more than 2 percent. We also find that DNA registration increases the likelihood that offenders find employment, enroll in education, and live in a more stable family environment.