Custodial Versus Non-Custodial Sentences: Long-Run Evidence from an Anticipated Reform
利用丹麦2000年一项将酒驾监禁改为非监禁刑的改革，发现较富裕的罪犯会推迟审判以逃避监禁；监禁导致罪犯出狱后犯罪更多、就业更差，且初犯者受影响更大。
We study the relative impact of custodial and non-custodial sentences on later crime and labor-market outcomes in Denmark, a country where detention conditions are particularly good. To do so, we take advantage of a large-scale reform of the Danish legislation implemented in 2000, whereby incarceration was replaced by a non-custodial sentence for most drunk-driving crimes, which represented a quarter of all custodial sentences passed in 1999. Our first key finding is that stakeholders anticipated the consequences of the reform and that wealthier offenders managed to postpone their trial until after the reform came into force to avoid prison. To measure the relative impact of incarceration, we therefore use a novel instrumental variable approach exploiting quasi-exogenous variation in the probability of being tried after the reform, and therefore incarcerated, based on offenders’ crime date. We follow sampled individuals over a 15-year period and find that incarcerated offenders commit more crimes and have weaker ties to the labor market after release. Additionally, first-time offenders are more negatively affected than repeat offenders.