The Puzzle of Falling US Birth Rates since the Great Recession
记录了2007至2020年美国出生率急剧下降的事实，发现大衰退是早期下降的部分原因，但之后无法归因于经济、政策或社会因素，推测是年轻一代生育偏好和生活目标改变所致。
This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including teens, Hispanic women, and college-educated white women. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.