Temporary work contracts and female labor market outcomes
利用日本航空业在1990年代和2010年代两次政策变动作为自然实验，发现初始签订临时合同的空乘人员更易离职且10年内生育率更低。
How does initial placement in a temporary work contract affect workers’ subsequent labor market outcomes? We study a unique set of natural experiments: In the mid-1990s, the Japanese airline industry implemented a new hiring policy using temporary employment contracts. The policy was later reversed in the mid-2010s. Examining the universe of employment records from one of Japan’s major airlines as well as government surveys to compare outcomes for cohorts of flight attendants hired just before to those hired just after these changes in industry policy, we find that workers starting on temporary contracts were less likely to remain with the firm over time and are less likely to have children within 10 years after starting the job. These findings do not appear to be the result of selection on observables.