The Welfare Costs of Job Loss and Decarbonization: Evidence from Germany’s Coal Phaseout
基于德国就业数据，构建求职模型计算煤炭行业失业的终身福利成本，发现工资差异和就业保障比失业本身影响更大，并模拟了加速脱碳的政策效果。
Job losses in fossil industries are often prominent in climate policy discussions. Why are job losses costly? Who is most affected? How can welfare costs be reduced? We present a simple job search model to calculate lifetime welfare costs of job loss. Based on the universe of German employment biographies, we apply the model to the archetypical fossil industry—coal mining. Contrary to public discourse, unemployment is a small factor in welfare costs of job loss, with wage differentials and job security much more important. Counterfactual policy simulations quantify the increase in welfare costs of faster decarbonization and potential benefits of bespoke labor market policies.