Considering the Counterfactual: Real Wages in the First Industrial Revolution
研究了1570至1850年英格兰人口与经济互动模型，发现工业革命初期人口冲击导致实际工资增长缓慢，若发生在革命前后果将更严重。
Abstract We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4% before 1760 but 1.5% thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Industrial Revolution the impact on real wages would have been catastrophic and that these shocks were largely responsible for very slow growth of real wages during the Industrial Revolution.