Childbirth and poverty in Europe: A dynamic bivariate approach
利用2015-2018年欧盟收入与生活条件面板数据，通过动态双变量probit模型分析25个欧洲国家生育对贫困风险的影响，发现生育略微增加贫困风险，但存在国家异质性，且贫困经历会增强对生育的抑制作用。
We use the 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions panel data and a dynamic bivariate probit model to estimate the impact of childbirth on the risk of poverty in 25 European countries. We model both poverty and childbirth mechanisms, identifying genuine state dependence and accounting for feedback effects from past poverty to childbirth. We find that childbirth slightly increases the risk of poverty in Europe, but some heterogeneities emerge at the country level. When disentangling the effects of childbirth conditional on past poverty status, it appears that childbirth determines redistributive effects possibly induced by welfare systems. We find evidence of genuine state dependence and suggests that discouraging factors induced by the experience of poverty itself has increased over time. The risk of poverty is triggered by the presence of dependent members in the household, while education and employment stability are helpful to combat poverty.