Are Short‐lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long‐Lasting Jobs?*
研究了比利时长期失业的离校生中，接受短期工作（持续一个季度或更少且非自愿结束）是否有助于在两年内找到长期工作（持续一年或以上）。模拟发现，接受短期工作可使找到长期工作的概率提高约9.5至13.4个百分点。
Abstract This article assesses whether short‐lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long‐lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long‐term unemployed school‐leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi‐spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school‐leavers accepting a short‐lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long‐lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short‐lived jobs.