The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?
研究利用2018年中美贸易争端中的关税变化，基于2016年至2019年5月美国从30个国家进口的产品月度数据，采用双重差分法估计关税对进口的直接影响，发现美国对华关税显著减少了从中国的进口，但未发现短期贸易转移至第三国的证据。
Abstract We provide evidence on the existence of short‐run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product‐level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference‐in‐differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short‐run trade diversion effects towards third countries.