Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade
研究1950-2008年中国对美出口增长，用结构模型区分过去关税变化与未来关税预期变化的影响，发现1980年正常贸易关系授予的影响持续到2001年入世之后，且失去NTR地位的可能性在1986-92年间显著下降。
We study China’s export growth to the United States from 1950 to 2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China’s 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986–92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends support our findings: industries more exposed to the 1980 reform have shed workers steadily since then without acceleration around China’s WTO accession.