Climate Risk and Preferences over the Size of Government: Evidence from California Wildfires
利用加州野火活动的变化，研究发现经历大型野火的社区对扩大政府规模的投票支持增加0.8个百分点，对环保组织支持的投票支持增加2.4个百分点，且效应在共和党地区更强，表明风险通过改变个人偏好而非选民构成起作用。
Abstract How does exposure to risk shape individual preferences for an expanded state? I examine this question in the context of climate change-related risk. Using variation in California wildfire activity, I show neighborhoods experiencing large fires increase support by 0.8 percentage points for ballot initiatives which expand the size of government and by 2.4 percentage points for ballot initiatives endorsed by pro-environment interest groups. The effect is stronger in Republican areas and is not driven by shifts in voter registration or turnout, suggesting the mechanism acts through changes in individual preferences rather than compositional changes in the electorate.