An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread across Sectors in the United States
构建了一个离散时间流行病学模型，利用美国1952-2015年的资金流量数据，研究经济恶化如何在各部门间传播，并识别高传染性部门及其传播渠道。
Abstract This paper develops a discrete‐time epidemiological model to characterize the spread of economic deterioration across sectors in the United States for the period 1952–2015. It is the first model to apply an epidemiological approach to consider such spread using macroeconomic Flow of Funds data. By extending the usual one‐period Markov model to a two‐period setting, we incorporate the possibility that an initial slow growth period may either continue further or improve such that further economic deterioration is averted. The estimated model can be used to classify more versus less contagious sectors and identify their channels of transmission.