Loss Aversion in Farmland Price Expectations
基于1979年以来的普渡大学农田价值与现金租金调查数据，研究发现农田市场专家对高估价格涨幅存在损失厌恶，考虑这一不对称性后，其预期是理性的损失最小化行为。
Farmland price expectations play a critical role in farm investment decisions, yet previous studies suggest that market experts' expectations are not rational. That is, market experts do not make efficient use of all available information. This article tests the degree to which expectations are consistent with rational expectations, under symmetric and asymmetric loss, based on aggregate expectations from Purdue Farmland Values and Cash Rent Survey between 1979 and We find robust evidence that farmland market experts are averse to overpredicting farmland price increases. When this asymmetry is considered, farmland market experts are shown to be rational loss minimizers.