哈罗德·祖尔彻终究是短视的吗?复制拉斯特的发动机更换估计

Was Harold Zurcher myopic after all? Replicating Rust's engine replacement estimates

Journal of Applied Econometrics · 2023
被引 0
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

复现了Rust(1987)关于哈罗德·祖尔彻更换公交车发动机的动态决策研究,修正了数据处理差异,并重新检验了祖尔彻是否短视的假设。

Abstract

Summary Rust (1987) studies the dynamic decision making under uncertainty made by Harold Zurcher to replace bus engines. In the decades since, the model has been applied, extended, and used as an example multiple times. This paper resolves some discrepancies in how data were transformed in the original and subsequent archives. Using a package that standardizes computation of estimated dynamic programming, it replicates the 12 original maximum likelihood estimates and the six main hypothesis tests of whether Zurcher's decisions were myopic or not. The discrepancy in the data processing results in modest differences in estimates and log‐likelihoods, but the p ‐values are essentially the same because the differences are very similar across values of the discount factor in the tests.

动态规划最大似然估计短视决策发动机更换