Unfolding Trade Effect in Two Margins of Informality. The Peruvian Case
研究进口竞争加剧如何通过两个渠道影响非正规就业：一是低生产率非正规企业萎缩导致广泛非正规就业减少，二是正规企业为降成本雇佣非正规工人导致密集非正规就业增加，且后者主导了总体效应。
Abstract This paper studies the effect of an increase in import competition on informality along two margins. It considers the extensive margin, where workers are hired by unregistered employers, and the intensive margin, where even though jobs are carried out by registered firms, employees are off the books. Peru’s relentless informal employment and its unprecedented trade-driven growth provides an ideal case study. Using a rich household survey, this study finds that exposure to trade impacts on informality through two competing and contrasting mechanisms. On the one hand, extensive-informal employment declines as unregistered employers shrink or exit due to their low productivity. On the other hand, intensive-informal employment rises as registered employers reduce costs by hiring informal workers. Furthermore, results suggest that the intensive margin drives the overall effect. Hence, trade liberalization increases informality.