Firm‐specific forecast errors and asymmetric investment propensity
利用2007-2011年德国制造业企业调查数据，研究发现预测误差的大小和方向会非对称地影响投资倾向：实际差于预期时投资下降，但好于预期时却不调整，这有助于解释危机后复苏缓慢。
Abstract This paper analyzes how firm‐specific forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011 relate to firms' investment propensity. Our findings reveal that asymmetries arise depending on the size and direction of the forecast error. The investment propensity declines if the realized situation is worse than expected. However, firms do not adjust investment if the realized situation is better than expected suggesting that the uncertainty component of the forecast error counteracts good surprises of unexpectedly favorable business conditions. This asymmetric mechanism can be one explanation behind slow recovery following crises.