An Empirical Dynamic Model of Trade with Consumer Accumulation
构建了一个动态结构模型，其中企业在外围市场缓慢积累消费者。利用企业层面出口数据和粒子马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛估计器，模型预测新出口商存活率更低，并估计出低于传统方法一半的出口进入成本。模拟和样本外预测表明，引入消费者积累摩擦并降低进入成本，能使模型匹配国际贸易对冲击的总体反应。
This paper develops a dynamic structural model of trade in which firms slowly accumulate consumers in foreign markets. Estimating the model using export data from individual firms and a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo estimator, the model predicts lower survival rates for new exporters and estimates low entry costs of exporting—less than half of those estimated in the absence of consumer accumulation. Using simulations and out-of-sample predictions, I show that the introduction of such frictions and the reduction in estimated entry costs allow the model to match important facts regarding the aggregate response of international trade to shocks.