A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Markets During the Finnish 1860s Famine
开发了一个贝叶斯时空模型，研究1860年代芬兰饥荒期间前工业化谷物市场的整合，发现饥荒期间价格冲击传播更快更远，加剧了饥荒扩散。
Abstract We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.