Measuring the Output Gap using Large Datasets
提出一种基于动态因子模型的新产出缺口测度方法，利用大量美国宏观经济指标，发现1990年代中期至2008年美国经济高于潜在水平，2018年第四季度劳动力市场比商品和服务市场更紧。
Abstract We propose a new measure of the output gap based on a dynamic factor model that is estimated on a large number of U.S. macroeconomic indicators and which incorporates relevant stylized facts about macroeconomic data (comovements, nonstationarity, and the slow drift in long-run output growth over time). We find that (1) from the mid-1990s to 2008, the U.S. economy operated above its potential and (2) in 2018:Q4, the labor market was tighter than the market for goods and services. Because it is mainly data-driven, our measure is a natural complementary tool to the theoretical models used at policy institutions.