The Impact of Emerging Technologies in the Aviation Manufacturing Industry: A Case Study of the Gradual-Change Factors in Shaanxi, PR China
基于专家访谈和系统动力学方法，构建了航空制造领域新兴技术渐变的概念模型，利用陕西省历史数据模拟分析，发现竞争技术抑制、企业创新和市场扩张促进新兴技术发展，建议早期优化技术性能而非市场应用阶段。
As China’s economy becomes more robust, the government has emphasized the need to increase the civil aviation industry’s rapid development and reduce civil aviation’s technological gap compared to other advanced aircraft manufacturers. The use of the appropriate technologies in the aviation industry can help achieve the government’s plan of creating more jobs and increasing its revenue through the civil aviation industry. However, emerging technologies’ uncertainty and dynamic nature have led to significant challenges when these technologies are applied to the aviation manufacturing industry. This article applies the principles and methods of system dynamics based on the gradual-change factors of emerging technologies as identified through expert interviews to construct conceptual models depicting the gradual-change of emerging technologies in the aviation manufacturing field. Historical data from Shaanxi province were used to simulate and analyze the gradual development of emerging technologies. An analysis of the simulation results revealed that the rapid growth of competitive technologies in the growth process inhibits the gradual-change of emerging technologies. Also, increasing enterprise innovation capabilities, market demand expansion, and technology optimization significantly promote emerging technologies’ development and application. Furthermore, the research result shows that competitive products and technologies influence the gradual development of emerging technologies. Finally, the results indicate that the civil aviation industry should optimize the performance and function of emerging technologies during the early development stage instead of at the market application stage.