Earnings Growth and Acquisition Returns: Do Investors Gamble in the Takeover Market?
研究发现，盈利大幅增长或大幅下滑的收购方在公告时市场反应更积极，呈U型关系；但下滑者的高回报随后反转，而增长者的高回报持续，这源于散户投资者对业绩差公司的赌博心态。
Abstract We document a strong positive initial market reaction to merger announcements from bidders with either large earnings growth or significant earnings decline, relative to those with neutral earnings change, reflecting a U-shaped pattern between bidders’ earnings growth and announcement returns. However, the higher initial returns for bidders with earnings decline subsequently reverse, whereas the higher returns for bidders with high growth do not. We further show that the return patterns are driven by a tendency for retail investors to gamble that merger and acquisition deals initiated by poorly performing bidders will generate high synergies.