A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Limited Household Risk Sharing
该理论通过家庭有限分担劳动收入风险与劳动调整成本的相互作用,解释利率动态,并预测劳动力市场紧度与债券风险溢价负相关,为理解收益率曲线形态提供新视角。
Abstract We present a theory in which the interaction between limited sharing of idiosyncratic labor income risk and labor adjustment costs (that endogenously arise through search frictions) determines interest rate dynamics. In the general equilibrium, the interaction of these two ingredients relates bond risk premiums, cross-sectional skewness of income growth, and labor market tightness. Our model rationalizes an upward-sloping average yield curve and predicts a negative relation between labor market tightness and bond risk premiums. We provide evidence for our theory’s mechanism and predictions.