Measuring preferences over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty
通过实验直接测量人们愿意放弃多少消费来立即消除所有消费不确定性,发现平均约为5%,并检验了递归效用模型的结构性联系,但预测与直接测得的时机溢价呈负相关。
Timing premia measure how much consumption people are willing to forgo to resolve all consumption uncertainty immediately. We develop a novel experiment to elicit these attitudes directly in a model-free way. On average, subjects forgo around 5% of their total consumption to resolve all uncertainty immediately. Recursive utility models postulate a structural link between timing premia and deep preference parameters. We elicit these preference parameters separately and estimate corresponding predicted timing premia. Comparing directly elicited and predicted timing premia allows us to test this structural link. Surprisingly, we find a negative correlation between predicted and elicited timing premia.