Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy
利用24个OECD国家1990-2019年的面板数据，检验气候变化、环境政策和绿色创新对商业周期的综合宏观效应，发现物理风险是负需求冲击，转型风险是负供给冲击。
Using an original panel data set for 24 OECD countries over the sample 1990-2019 and a multivariate empirical macroeconomic framework for business cycle analysis, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and green innovation. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy typical of a disorderly transition are exacerbated for low income, high emission countries with no history of environmental policy or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, one size does not fit all and results support the need for a (possibly country-specific) policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies.