The Unemployment‐Risk Channel in Business‐Cycle Fluctuations
研究了失业风险渠道如何通过工人对失业的担忧减少消费需求，从而放大经济收缩，并基于美国数据校准模型发现该渠道对产出波动的影响是标准模型的两倍。
ABSTRACT The unemployment‐risk channel (URC) amplifies an initial contraction through a reduction in consumption demand by workers who fear unemployment. Crucial for this are the dynamics of job separations and firm hiring. In US data, the job‐finding rate responds slower to identified macroeconomic shocks than the separation rate, but accounts for a similar share of the unemployment response. We calibrate a tractable heterogeneous‐agent new‐Keynesian model with endogenous separations and sluggish vacancy creation to match these facts. The share of output fluctuations due to the URC is twice as large as in a standard model with exogenous separations and free entry.