Inflation expectations and consumption: Evidence from 1951
利用1951年消费者金融调查的微观数据，研究朝鲜战争期间货币政策受限时通胀预期对消费的影响，发现预期通胀率越高，1950年实际消费与1951年预期消费的差距越大，但效应规模不大。
Abstract We use rich microdata from the 1951 Survey of Consumer Finances to study inflation expectations and consumption during the Korean War, in an episode when monetary policy was constrained. We provide the first detailed analysis of consumer inflation expectations from that era. Using survey measures of actual and expected spending on durables, cars, and homes at extensive and intensive margins, we show that the difference between consumption in 1950 and expected consumption in 1951 increases with expected inflation. Effect sizes are modest, even though household balance sheets were healthy and inflation was salient.